Current situation

Haven't had a lot of time the past couple weeks. In the process of moving. Took a larger loss on a long term play, got stopped out and too much going on economically right now for me to pay attention to. I did have a good run for a couple of weeks but made the mistake of increase my position sizes after some good profits.

Interesting enough, I am in the process of reading a book right now by Bo Yoder. Optimizing your trading Edge. He talk about profits and losses as a cycle. When markets are giving money, they always try and take back. It is a traders job to test the waters appropriately to determine whether or not it is one or the other. In my situation, I had a good couple of weeks and took profits. It would have been responsible of me to slow down and even decrease my position size after my run of profits, just to test the waters of the market. I realize that I may be right about the the longer term outlook of the market, but short term can stop you out of a position constantly even if YOU ARE RIGHT. I've only been trading a couple of years and mostly on paper. The book talks about traders who test a strategy on paper and it works out great, only to jump into the live market and get destroyed. This is because of the payout/payback cycle he talks about which I believe related to and is similar to the cyclical business cycle modern economies encounter. As soon as the trader goes live.. the market has switched on him. He then turns around after taking losses and tests his strategy again on paper and is profitable again.

Point being. After a run of profits. Do not increase your position size assuming that your market strategy is the holy grail. The holy grail is your psychology and the way you approach the market. Test the waters of the market out with smaller positions to figure out if the run is still valid.

Anyways, the book is good reading. Check it out.

GBP/JPY update

POUND/YEN has retraced and seem to have found resistance. I have decided to pull the trigger on my short. I have a very wide stop on this trade because it is a long term play. Slightly in the profits so far. I have a tendency to exit my trades too early and this is going to be my biggest challenge in this position.

May 12

Took the day off. Woke up late so I missed out on some big moves. NYSE is bullish today, that was a nice sign. I am putting the government IRA I manage into aggressive mode throughout the rest of the week.

EUR/USD Quick profit

Eur/usd pair retraced over the last few daily sessions. Opening today only to hit and bounce off of resistance. This has been my favorite pair since last FED cut rate. Technicals on it seem to be playing out very well.

+50 points in less than an hour and still move to room. I decided to exit the trade at support because it was such a fast move. I will re-enter with a pullback, but, there is a good probability it continues down.

05/09/08 End of day

I didn't trade today. I wasn't really feeling any trades. I did set up some trades for next week which I will post Sunday before European session.

GBP/JPY UPDATE

First chart is GBP/JPY now. It has done what I expected it to do 2 days ago (see archive). I haven't taken a position on this because I planned on shorting this for long term swing. Its still a to-watch.

The second chart is its condition 2 days prior.

Third chart is long term chart indicating elliot wave theory principle. I really like the way this

looks and maybe should have not hesitated a couple days ago, but, I am not as familiar with this pair as I am with the rest of the majors.

End of Day.

Not a whole lot happened today. Took one trade home for a loss of 40 pips. Just a sloppy day.

-40 points

GBP/JPY

Much like the EUR/JPY yesterday, it is testing support and I will pull the trigger on a clean break.

Evening update.

EUR/USD Broke down as expected. I got in exactly at the right moment. Here is an updated 4 hr chart. There is no real resistance till 1.49. I will hold this position as long as I can while locking in profits along the way. Currently up around 35 points, and have 25 locked in.

USD/CHF Broke out also. I expected these to happen earlier in the day. I entered this position with the break of resistance a short while ago. I have started off with a very small position because this pair did fail me earlier in the day.

05/07/08 End of day

USD/CHF I got into the position with a tight stop hoping we would break through resistance.
-20 points.

USD/EUR Locked in 40 points early. Sad thing is, last night my broker GFT stopped me
out of my position early because the charts they provide me have click n order on charts.
Somehow I moved my stop last night playing with trend-lines... Should have locked in over 120 pips on that trade. Good thing I got stopped 3 points from entry last night while I was sleeping.

+40 points


EUR/JPY Finally broke down from support and am currently in the trade as we speak and will hold it overnight or till it reaches my limit.

+59 points

Really good day for me today. What excites me is that it really should have been even better. Maybe tomorrow or tonight.

DOLLAR/SWISS FRANC

US Dollar is testing resistance against the franc. This is a buy with a break of 1.06.

The dollar is testing resistance on this pair and support on eur/usd pair. A break of one or another will help the rally.

Eur/USD Update

Started Rallying. Slowed down. Support break is still not clear but I have locked in 40 points.
10:00 am bring around the pending home sales index. I have never traded this before but anything regarding the housing industry that is positive will help the Dollar continue to rally. This news could help pull the USD out of deep water.

BRITISH POUND/US DOLLAR

THIS PAIR BROKE SUPPORT AND HAS BEEN RALLYING. THIS IS A GOOD INDICATION THAT EUR/USD SHOULD FOLLOW IF SUPPORT ON THAT PAIR IS BROKEN.

EUR/JPY

This is a TO-WATCH. It has test resistance for a 3rd time and bounced off with no success. This
could help this pair move lower and I will pull the trigger with a break of support lvls.

eur/usd Today will could be a huge day!

Daily of Eur/USD. As you can see, it is 4:07 am, and testing key support level. It doesn't look like there is any significant support until 1.4879. This is the move the world has been waiting so long for. A break of this level I would consider to be a reversal of the pair.

I am in the trade short right at the support level with a TIGHT stop. I did this because of the overnight momentum we experienced with prayers that it continues through this support with a vengeance.

USD/CHF Possible reversal

Although the dollar has been strong for a short period of time now. Direction is still not conclusive. Here is a 4hr chart for DOLLAR/FRANK. Symmetrical triangle breakout followed by
a rising wedge. This could push the pair lower if broken.

POTENTIAL SETUP I GBP/JPY (short)

Weekly chart by Tahir. imanov.tahir@hotmail.com

blog- http://u-traders.blogspot.com/

I am looking at this for a long term trade. This is a weekly chart and it is setting up nicely for the 5th swing.

also, look at 4 hour chart! triple top, macd divergence, MA's signaling the sell. Could this be the start of our 5th SWING!